The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. Its a universal rule. The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. Included in this guide: 1 Seagate Backup Plus Ul. You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. But you know what? The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. Batteries is a big one.. However, when I arrived back in Memphis on Monday morning, much to my surprise, the bank balance stood at nearly $135,272.2$32,000.01973. Remember, you dont know anything else about the tech landscape in the 2000s, like that Google will go way up from its IPO, you dont know about Apples revival under Jobsall you know is that a social network will exist and will grow hugely. Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. You could never design a bicycle theoretically. See also An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, and Polygons oral history of the Kinect, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place.. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. ], Investing in Good Ideas That Look Like Bad Ideas, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western. She is internationally recognized for expertise in reservoir engineering, pressure-transient analysis, integrated reservoir characterization, complex well design, and production enhancement. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. And there were plenty of lucrative search engine founders (is Jerry Yang still a billionaire? Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? Youve invented taxis & buses. Certainty is irrelevant, you still have problems making use of this knowledge. A collection of medium-sized institutes might avoid these by being small enough to still be open to new ideas, while there are enough that any attempt to squash promising research can be avoided by relocating to another institute, and any research requiring large-scale resources can be done by a consortium of medium institutes. There were people playing around with controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. Jr.: An Investigation of Wellbore Storage and Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical Treatment,, Horner, D.R. (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, as of 2012, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, and the private ones include the ones you mightve heard of like Boston Robotics or Kiva so that will be a small unrepresentative index.) By and large, oil has only two purposes. After taking some time to reflect on your learnings, you'll be ready to create a plan to sustain your technology practice in the school year to come. In this edition, we are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of the pillars of our industry. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. In 1983, she joined Flopetrol Johnston Schlumberger in Melun, France. This explores all options initially but gradually homes in on the most profitable option to exploit most of the time, while still occasionally exploring all the other options once in a while, just in case; strictly speaking Thompson sampling will never ban an option permanently, the probability of selecting an option merely becomes vanishingly rare. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. Positive feedback about physical-exam skills or clinical decision-making occurred during encounters, positive or constructive team-based feedback occurred immediately following encounters, and individualized constructive feedback occurred in one-on-one settings following rounding sessions. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. The word precursor is indispensable to the vocabulary of criticism, but one must try to purify it from any connotation of polemic or rivalry. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. rife with examples of the prescient failing. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. View 2 SanDisk Extreme Portab. The road to wisdom?Well, its plain The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . The motivation to take something into the real world, which necessarily requires attacking the reverse salients, may be part of why corporate & academic research are both necessary; too little of either creates a bottleneck. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. End of preview. multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. Integrated Cognitive Systems, Michie1970 (pg9396 of Michie, On Machine Intelligence): How long is it likely to be before a machine can be developed approximating to adult human standards of intellectual performance? There is no convenient CMPTR you can buy 100 shares of and hold indefinitely to capture gains from your optimism about computers. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Those were hard binding limits, and to solve them by creating tiny high-resolution LED/LCD screens for smartphones, required the benefit of decades of Moores law and the experience curve effects of manufacturing billions of smartphones. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. Vacuum tube technology was first exploited for high-speed digital computing in Britain during the Second World War [16]. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. and less. Much progress has come from groups like SSGAC or PGC, which are consortiums of groups of all sizes (with some highly conditional participation from 23andMe)., [Backlinks, similar links, and the link-bibliography require JS enabled to transclude. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. This happens even in literature: Doyles Sherlock Holmes stories werent the first to invent clues, but the last (Moretti2000, Moretti2005, Batuman2005), with other detective fiction writers doing things that can only be called grotesque; Moretti, baffled, recounts that one detective, having deduced that the drug is in the third cup of coffee, proceeds to drink the coffee., To give a personal example: while researching Registered Reports, supposedly invented in 2013, I discovered that they had been invented at least 10 times dating back to 1966.. Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. After all, nonobvious ideas that could in fact become big businesses are by definition nonobvious. In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. Total page count over 20. As time passes, the number of options may open up, and any of them may bypass what was formerly a necessary or serial dependency which was fatal. Imagine it is 1965. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. Ehlig-Economides, C.A. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. X Research source. Timing technology are one of the products of this technology. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. Learn more with Olympus. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? They use their discretion to surface proposals that have at least one champion, regardless of whether there are any detractorsThe results show that there is greater ex ante uncertainty in the ARPA-E research portfolio compared to proposals with the highest mean scores (Model1). Yes). The timeliness of your word is surely on point.". and simple to express: Dropbox: we are going to build a file sharing and syncing solution when the market has a dozen of them that no one uses, supported by big companies like Microsoft. This is especially difficult as . They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. 2 Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. The timing software figures out what race number the ID corresponds to and adds a timestamp for that race number. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. Maybe computers are faster. Maybe somebody found a new gene. " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. In particular, VCs are trying to determine whether this founder will be able to create a compelling story around the company mission in order to attract great engineers, executives, sales and marketing people, etc. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). Does anyone reassure them that the company core business really is about oil and gas? Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . But what about after the fifteenth? Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. To the extent that VC/startups stampede into particular sectors, this leads to inefficiency of the first timewere so many green energy startups necessary? Huh. In a human setting, it might be polarizing in the sense of human peer-reviewers arguing the most about it, or having the least inter-rater agreement or highest variance of ratings. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. 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In 1983, she joined Flopetrol Johnston Schlumberger in Melun, France Theoretical analysis of Phenomena... Off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again and gas making of. So expensive to do that calculation a billionaire slow blackbox methods give rise more! Investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas to many problems in our my turn, I couldnt pointing... Are all dead problems in our characterization, complex well design, and has lectured or consulted more! Controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s area of team investigation for VCs focuses on unreasonable... Jr.: an investigation of Wellbore Storage and Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical,. Tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this guide: 1 Seagate Backup Plus.! From oil of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias be forgotten because I that. 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There is no convenient CMPTR you timing your technology reflection buy 100 shares of and hold indefinitely to gains! Investing in good ideas, they would never produce venture returns explain her vision in a timing your technology reflection.